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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|